Q1 2008 saw 14 single family homes change ownership in Edgebrook which was a couple fewer than we had in the same period in the past two years. This was compensated for big time though with the average and median sale price increases. A single family home in Edgebrook currently sells for an average of $554,893 which is 16.8% more than what it sold for in Q1 2007, and 17.3% more than in Q1 2006. Talk about appreciation! And these figures include sales of homes in South Edgebrook as well as the southwestern part of 60646 (North Gladstone Park) where homes are less expensive than in Wildwood, Middle Edgebrook, Edgebrook Towers, and definitely Old Edgebrook. The caveat that comes with all this good news though, is: Increased market times. In Q1 2008, it took 158 days on average before buyers and sellers could toast to a solid contract, vs. 141 days in Q1 2007, and 108 days in Q1 2006. Patience on the part of Edgebrook sellers paid off, it seems, and it has been needed, given the current state of the mortgage market which has caused the pool of able buyers to shrink considerably. This leads us to the topic of absorption rates. At present, there are 75 homes on the market for sale in Edgebrook which translates into an MSI (months supply of inventory) of 16.1 months (75/4.67). In other words, if no other homes came on the market for sale, it would take 16.1 months to sell off the existing inventory. For a similar comparison (because I didn’t track the MSI rates of Edgebrook and Sauganash separately, last year), in March of 2007, the MSI for all of 60646 stood at 7.5 months. You know what they say: You win some, you lose some…

What’s going on with sales in Sauganash? 8 closed single family homes in the first quarter of this year, vs. 20 in Q1 2007 and 18 in Q1 2006. I’m not sure yet what the reason for the drop in sales velocity might be, especially in light of the fact that home values in Sauganash skyrocketed to almost $650,000 on average in the first quarter of 2008. This represents a 20.5% increase over Q1 2007, and an 8.4% increase over Q1 2006. The plot thickens, though. The average market time in Q1 2008 fell to 87 days from 143 days in Q1 2007 and was about the same as Q1 2006 at 85 days. What all this means to me: The pool of buyers that can afford a $650,000 home in Sauganash has shrunk considerably, hence the decrease in number of units sold. However, those buyers that can afford to pay these prices, will not hesitate to buy in Sauganash when they find what they want. Let me know if there could be another way of interpreting these figures. Meanwhile, as far as absorption in Sauganash is concerned, we’re looking at an MSI of 24 months, with 64 homes currently on the market for sale. Ouch. Btw, quite a few of them are dubbed “short sales” in the MLS which could mean that at the end of Q2 and Q3 2008 we might be looking at quite a few REO’s for sale in Sauganash. That could be detrimental to the average sale price in Sauganash, unfortunately.