By: Markus Azadeh • November 24th, 2009 •
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I fully realize that I am almost two months late with Q3 2009 home sale figures for Edgebrook, Sauganash and Gladstone Park. My excuse is that I was busy moving my business from one RE/MAX office to another which, contrary to popular belief, is quite time-consuming. Add to that a whole bunch of very exciting business initiatives at my new office, and next thing you know, I’m falling behind on blogging. But …, better late than never (said the Cook County Treasurer when she mailed your second installment property tax notices for 2008, a couple of weeks ago
).
I’m going to preface this installment of 60646 quarterly real estate market conditions by saying that – not unlike the Chicago Bears’ 2009/10 season – our Edgebrook, Sauganash, and Gladstone Park home selling season in 2009 is unlikely to make a meaningful comeback. I don’t want you to peg me as the eternal pessimist, but realistically speaking, at this point, we’re in too deep of a valley to stage a dramatic come-from-behind assault on the glorious home sale figures of years past. Of course, the fourth quarter that we’re in at the moment, could still be the savior of this year’s home selling season, but with about 6 weeks left in the calendar for 2009, and a quick glance at the October and November MLS sales figures, chances are that at the end of this year, we’re going to look like Jay Cutler and his Bears offense in the red zone: Hideous!
Without further ado, I invite you to peruse the 3rd quarter 2009 home sale figures for Edgebrook, Sauganash, and Gladstone Park. And as always, I look forward to your comments and thoughts on these, as well. Also on behalf of RE/MAX Cityview, my family and I wish you a very happy Thanksgiving.
18 sold Edgebrook homes in Q3 2009 is the equivalent of a decline of about 45% year-over-year. Deja vu, in Q2 2009, there were 18 home sales in Edgebrook as well. Edgebrook Q3 2006-2009 Units Sold The bad news continues…the average home price in Edgebrook in Q3 2009 fell by 9.2% to $431,500 and the median sale price dropped by 6.7% to $419,750 vs. Q3 2008. To add insult to injury, the average market time in Q3 2009 rose by 27 days vs. Q3 2008 to 154 days. The graph below shows a frightening linear upward trend in average market times since Q3 2006.
 Edgebrook Q3 2006-2009 Sale Prices The next graph actually concerns me somewhat, because it shows signs of the onset of value erosion. Even though Edgebrook home sellers seem to have come to grips with lower average asking prices (red bars), in Q3 2009 they still ended up selling their homes 7.2% below asking price on average. Typically, about 10-15% below asking would be the sign for a distressed property neighborhood. But in Q3 2009, out of the 18 sales in Edgebrook, only two were short sales and only one was a bank-owned sale (REO). All other transactions were at arm’s length. Edgebrook Q3 2006-2009 Sale-List Prices The next image is the result of a 10-minute brainstorm, as I was trying to come up with alternative ways to present the stats to you in a way that wouldn’t bore you to death. The “Market Activity” table shows the various price ranges the 18 sold homes fell in, as well as the total market volume. Edgebrook Market Activity Q3 2009 With 51 homes actively for sale in Edgebrook, the MSI-Index (Months Supply of Inventory), a key absorption metric, currently stands at 8.5 months. In other words, if no other properties were to come on the market for sale, it would take 8.5 months to sell off the existing inventory of 51 homes in Edgebrook. |
Q3 2009 home sales in Sauganash tied the figure for Edgebrook at 18 units. This is actually a respectable result vs. Q3 2008 for Sauganash, even though short by 3 sales. But still better than Q3 2007 and Q3 2006. Sauganash Q3 2006-2009 Units Sold Let’s start with the good news: In Q3 2009, the average market time in Sauganash fell to 111 days, from 204 days in Q3 2008. What is not so pleasant is that in Q3 2009, the average sale price in Sauganash fell 28.2% to $359,850 vs. $501,119 in Q3 2008. The median sale price in Q3 2009 took a massive nosedive of 41.3% to $282,000 vs. Q3 2008. Sauganash Q3 2006-2009 Sale Prices Just like in Edgebrook, signs of home value erosion are starting to creep into Sauganash as well: In Q3 2009, home sellers sold their properties for an average of 8.2% below asking price. In Sauganash though, out of 18 homes sold, one was a short sale, and four homes were bank-owned sales (REOs). Together, these five distressed property sales represented 18.7% of total sales volume in Sauganash in Q3 2009. Sauganash Q3 2006-2009 Sale-List Prices The market activity table below shows that in Q3 2009, the majority of homes (14) in Sauganash sold below $450,000 which explains the massive decline of the median sale price vs. Q3 2008. Incidentally, all five distressed properties were sold below $300,000. Sauganash Market Activity Q3 2009 With 47 homes currently for sale in Sauganash, the MSI-Index stands at 7.8 months. |
In zip code 60646, the pleasant neighborhood surprises in Q3 2009 were South Edgebrook and North Gladstone Park. First off, with 14 single family home sales, SEGP was not far behind its Q3 2008 results. SEGP Q3 2006-2009 Units Sold While average and median sale prices were down 23.4% and 22.3% vs. Q3 2008 figures, average market times drastically fell from 269 days to 120 days. This is good news, as inventory seems to start moving again. SEGP Q3 2006-2009 Sale Prices More good news…While home sellers in SEGP were selling their properties for 9% below average asking price a year ago, in Q3 2009, they were not prepared to part with their real estate for more than 6.5% below asking price, on average. This warms my heart, somewhat. Of course, this should not cause us to lose sight of the fact that both average asking and selling prices declined vs. Q3 2008. SEGP Q3 2006-2009 Sale-List Prices No surprises in the market activity chart, as SEGP inventory is on average relatively lower priced than Edgebrook and Sauganash inventory. However, average sale prices in SEGP could rise soon, as listing activity in the MLS has resumed on the “Edgebrook Glen” subdivision inventory, within the past couple of weeks (For Sale in South Edgebrook / Gladstone Park). SEGP Market Activity Q3 2009 With 37 homes currently for sale in SEGP, the MSI-Index stands at 7.9 months. |
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Great information … thanks for your work on this.
In looking at the statistics for all the recent quarters, can you say when the “top” of the market in our communities was reached, and how much we’ve lost since then?
I have a sense that Edgebrook, in particular, held up longer than other areas of the city and suburbs beyond 60646, but perhaps the recent decline has been steeper to make up for that perceived resilience.
JB, in looking at the stats for Edgebrook, I would say that the top of the market was reached at the end of the third quarter of 2007 with 42 units sold in that quarter alone. From there, the figures started fading, and really started deteriorating in the second quarter of 2008. The highest average sale price for Edgebrook within the last four years was recorded for Q1 2008 at $568,500. Quarterly, that figure would fluctuate around + or – 5%. Until this past quarter (Q3 2009) where we saw the lowest average sale price recorded for Edgebrook within the last four years, at $431,500.
In Sauganash, the highest quarterly unit sales were in Q3 2005, with 26 homes sold. It’s probably safe to say though that Sauganash started losing its sales momentum at the end of the second quarter of 2007. Much like in Edgebrook though, Sauganash’s highest average sale price was recorded for the first quarter of 2008, at $649,438. And the lowest for – you guessed it – this past quarter Q3 2009, at $359,850.
My take on Edgebrook and Sauganash home values is that, unlike other neighborhoods on the north side of Chicago, we experienced the housing crisis – and I use that term cautiously for 60646 – a bit later, but not to the extent that other neighborhoods did. I think that’s partially what you’re saying, JB. Of course, the jury is still out on whether or not we’ve reached the bottom of the market, but generally speaking, I would say that Edgebrook and Sauganash are both Chicago neighborhoods that won’t ever become undesirable, unless someone decides to build and run a nuclear power plant in Edgebrook Woods. Moreover, distressed property problems are not limited to certain neighborhoods. They are everywhere in the Chicagoland area. In Sauganash a bit more than in Edgebrook, and in South Edgebrook and North Gladstone Park even more than in Sauganash and Edgebrook combined. We’ll work through it. It’s a cycle. And it too shall pass.