Edgebrook Q1 2008-2011 Units Sold

But wait… I guess it’s time to go back to reality. 16% decline of median home value Q1 2011 vs. Q1 2010. Not good. Add to that an increase of average market time from 126 to 214 days. Explanation for that one: One closed property in Edgebrook Towers had been on the market for a cumulative 1,243 days. Take that one out of the equation, and we’re looking at an average MT of 149 days.

Edgebrook Q1 2008-2011 Sale Prices

Of the 17 closed sales in Edgebrook, two properties were (bank-owned) foreclosure sales, and one was a short sale. So that’s 17.6% distressed property sales in Edgebrook. I’m bringing that up because the next chart is a bit of a shocker: Edgebrook home sellers in Q1 2011 sold their properties for an average of 8.6% below asking. And it wasn’t the two foreclosures that caused that. It was the previously mentioned short sale in Edgebrook Towers and another property in Wildwood that sold for $125,000 below asking price. Without these two sales, the ratio would have stood at 93.4%, or 6.6% below asking.

Edgebrook Q1 2008-2011 Sale/List Price Ratio

Hoping that Edgebrook will do better in Q2 2011…

Sauganash Q1 2008-2011 Units Sold

And while average sale prices in Q1 2011 were 24.3% higher than in Q1 2010, alas, the all-important median home value decreased by 10.1% in Q1 2011 vs Q1 2010. Nice though: Average market time dropped to 133 days from 254 days in Q1 2010.

Sauganash Q1 2008-2011 Sale Prices

Another metric that was cause for celebration was the increasing sale-to-list-price ratio which is a measure of how negotiable home sellers are. In Q1 2011, Sauganash home sellers were willing to part with their homes for an average of 5.7% below asking price, whereas in Q1 2010, that figure stood at 9.3%.

Sauganash Q1 2008-2011 Sale-List Prices

Two of the twelve closed Sauganash sales in Q1 2011 were bank-owned foreclosure sales. If median home values can inch up steadily, the Sauganash real estate market can make a meaningful comeback in the not too distant future.

SEGP Q1 2008-2011 Units Sold

The pattern of home values mirrored that of Sauganash: Average home values higher in Q1 2011 vs Q1 2010 (by 2.1%), but median home values lower in Q1 2011 vs. Q1 2010 (by 3%). Average market time was about even between Q1 2011 and Q1 2010.

SEGP Q1 2008-2011 Sale Prices

Sale-to-list-price-ratios had been on a steady climb since Q1 2008, but finally fell of in Q1 2011 to 93.8%. Still not a bad ratio, in the big scheme of things.

SEGP Q1 2008-2011 Sale/List Price Ratios

Two of the nine closed SEGP sales in Q1 2011 were bank-owned foreclosures, and one transaction was a short sale. In other words, a third of the SEGP residential market was distressed in Q1 2011. Let’s see what Q2 2011 has to offer…

Only 9 homes closed in Q4 2010 in Edgebrook, which represents an almost 44% drop vs. Q4 2009.

Edgebrook Q4 2007-2010 Units Sold

Over the course of the entire year 2010 that figure looked a little better, with 52 homes closed vs. 58 in 2009.

Edgebrook 2007-2010 Units Sold

While average sale prices in Q4 2010 were on par with those in Q4 2009, median home values took a slight dip, to the tune of 13%. Also, average market time in Edgebrook rose by 65 days over Q4 2009.

Edgebrook Q4 2007-2010 Sale Prices

Full-year 2010 results, however, looked much better: Average home values in 2010 rose by 1.6%, and more importantly, median home values in Edgebrook gained 4.8% vs. 2009. Also, average Edgebrook market time in 2010 dropped to 145 days vs. 153 days the year before.

Edgebrook 2007-2010 Sale Prices

While average list price-to-sale price ratio decreased slightly in Q4 2010 vs. Q4 2009 …

Edgebrook Q4 2007-2010 Sale/List Price Ratio

… Edgebrook home sellers held their ground comparatively well in terms of negotiability in 2010 vs. 2009.

Edgebrook 2007-2010 Sale/List Price Ratio

Of the 52 homes sold in Edgebrook in 2010, one property was a foreclosure, and 2 were short sales. It is also worth mentioning that in 2010, the condo development at 6425 W Touhy (Edgebrook Pointe) saw a sale of 9 units with an average sale price of $227,366 and a median sale price of $230,000.

In Q4 2010 almost as many homes changed owners as the year before in Sauganash …

Sauganash Q4 2007-2010 Units Sold

… throughout 2010 though, 14 more homes were sold in Sauganash than in 2009.

Sauganash 2007-2010 Units Sold

Both, average and median home values took a hit in Q4 2001 vs. Q4 2009 in Sauganash. But at least, average market time fell drastically from 182 days to 92 days.

Sauganash Q4 2007-2010 Sale Prices

Throughout 2010, average market times in Sauganash increased by three weeks vs. 2009. While average sale prices edged up by 1.1%, the all-important median single family home value in Sauganash decreased by 10% vs. 2009. (Ouch!)

Sauganash 2007-2010 Sale Prices

In Q4 2010, Sauganash home sellers agreed to part with their residences for an average of 7.2% below asking price …

Sauganash Q4 2007-2010 Sale/List Price Ratio

… and that figure pretty much matched that of the whole year 2010, as well as 2009.

Sauganash 2007-2010 Sale/List Price Ratio

Additional 2010 stats for Sauganash: 8 of the 71 closed homes were foreclosure sales, and 5 of them were short sales. Furthermore, 9 condos closed in 2010, 4 of which were foreclosures, and 3 townhouses found new owners.

Q4 2010 was not a total sales disaster in South Edgebrook/Gladstone Park. But Q4 in previous years have produced better results.

SEGP Q4 2007-2010 Units Sold

Full-year 2010 sales in South Edgebrook/Gladstone Park were actually decent, compared with same quarters in the past couple of years.

SEGP 2007-2010 Units Sold

Average and median home values were down in Q4 2010 vs. Q4 2009 by 34.6% and 26.4% respectively. In addition, average market time increased to 117 days from 86 days.

SEGP Q4 2007-2010 Sale Prices

Declining home values in SEGP were not just a Q4 issue, rather a year-long problem: A 10.7% decline in median home value vs. 2009. Average market time was roughly the same as in 2009.

SEGP 2007-2010 Sale Prices

The unfavorable news continued for SEGP in Q4, when average sale-to-list-price ratio dipped to 92% vs. 95.7% in Q4 2009.

SEGP Q4 2007-2010 Sale/List Price Ratio

While the graph below clearly depicts the declining home values in SEGP over the last 3 years, at least sale-to-list-price ratios seem to be on an upswing.

SEGP 2007-2010 Sale/List Price Ratio

It might also be interesting to note that of the 54 closed single family homes in SEGP in 2010, 10 were foreclosure (REO) sales, and 6 homes were short sales. Moreover, 5 condos were closed, 2 of which were foreclosures, and 1 was a short sale. SEGP is also the neighborhood with most apartment building sales in zip code 60646. In 2010, 15 apartment buildings closed in SEGP, with 2 of them being foreclosures, and 6 of them being short sales.

With a total of 11 closed homes in Q3 2010, Edgebrook saw a 38.9% decline of sold units vs. Q3 2009, and worse, a 66.7% decline vs. Q3 2008. There are no specific reasons for this drop-off, as far as I can see, other than the general culprits of bad economy / hideous job market / stingy mortgage lenders. Only one of the closed sales was a bank-owned / foreclosure / REO property which again proves that the Edgebrook and Wildwood markets are not pre-dominantly affected by foreclosures. On the plus side – and those figures are not included in this analysis – six condo units at Edgebrook Pointe (intersection of Touhy and Caldwell Ave.) were sold/closed in Q3 2010 at a median price of $227,000 (all 2 BR-2 BTH units). The previously unsold condos at this project had been purchased from Archer Bank by an investor who managed to sell all but one of the residential units in an average of 38 days, as a result of very aggressive pricing. Nicely done!

Edgebrook Q3 2007-2010 Units Sold

Not only were sales soft, but home values seemed to take a nosedive in Edgebrook as well in Q3 2010. At $324,000, the median price for a single family home in Edgebrook fell by 22.8% in Q3 2010 vs. Q3 2009. This is a relatively steep drop, given that the decline in value from Q3 2008 to Q3 2009 was “a mere” 9.2%. Obviously, not every home in Edgebrook and Wildwood is a luxury home, hence, there is a suspicion that the 11 sales did not (or hardly) involve any luxury properties, which in turn could explain why the median value was “only” in the lower 320′s in Edgebrook in Q3 2010. I’ll expand on that farther down below. Average market time improved marginally from 154 days in Q3 2009 to 142 days in Q3 2010.

Edgebrook Q3 2007-2010 Sale Prices

While the downward change in median home values in Edgebrook was nothing to write home about, a look at the sale-to-list-price ratio reveals that Q3 2010 home sellers in Edgebrook did not compromise their expectations by much, compared to last year’s sellers in Q3. In Q3 2010, sellers were not willing to part with their homes for more than an average of 7.5% below asking price, while in Q3 2009 that figure was 7.2%. More realistic pricing had certainly something to do with that.

Edgebrook Q3 2007-2010 Sale-List Prices

And finally, a look at the breakdown of sales by residence size sort of confirms that Q3 2010 was not particularly geared towards luxury home sales in Edgebrook. The vast majority of transactions involved homes with 3 bedrooms or less, and sold below $375,000. Only two homes had four or more bedrooms, selling for $415,000 and $430,000 respectively.

Edgebrook Q3 2010 Stats by Home Size

With 40 homes currently for sale in Edgebrook, the MSI-Index (Months Supply of Inventory) stands at 10.9 months which means that if no other homes came on the market for sale, it would take 10.9 months to sell off the existing inventory of homes in Edgebrook.

16 homes sold in Sauganash in Q3 2010, and that includes one residence that is located in the Brynford Park area (bound by Victoria St., Tripp Ave., Bryn Mawr Ave., and Pulaski Ave.) We could debate whether that patch is still Sauganash or North Park, the fact though is that it’s zip code 60646, and it’s closer to Sauganash than it is to North Park. Besides, there is not that much real estate activity to report of from that area anyway. So, 16 sold homes means an 11.1% decline of unit sales vs. Q3 2009.

Sauganash Q3 2007-2010 Units Sold

Now comes a pleasant surprise: Average and median home values in Sauganash rose in Q3 2010 vs. Q3 2009. Average by 35.4% and median by 41.2%. Granted, among the inventory of closed homes in Q3 2009 in Sauganash, we had four bank-owned / REO sales and one short sale, whereas in Q3 2010, we only saw one bank-owned / REO sale and two short sales among the 16 closed units. Nonetheless, a $116,000 median home value increase a year later is quite impressive. But, I think it’s still way too early to call this a market turnaround. Average market times rose to 227 days, which is a bit of a skewed figure, as that one residence in Brynford Park closed after a cumulative 814 days. Without that property, the average market time in Sauganash in Q3 2010 would have been 188 days.

Sauganash Q3 2007-2010 Sale Prices

More good news: The sale-to-list-price ratio in Q3 2010 rose to 93.5% from 91.8% in Q3 2009. If we disregard the three distressed sales in Q3 2010, the ratio would be 92.9% which is still higher than Q3 2009′s ratio including 5 distressed sales. So, this might be an indication that the era of “fire sales” – if there ever were any in Sauganash – are coming to an end.

Sauganash Q3 2007-2010 Sale-List Prices

With 37 homes currently for sale in Sauganash, the MSI-Index (Months Supply of Inventory) stands at 6.9 months. This is an absorption figure that is almost indicative of a balanced real estate market . As I said before, I’m not going to call this a turnaround until I see the upcoming fourth quarter sales figures for 2010, and put them into a full-year context.

In Q3 2010, the residential real estate market in South Edgebrook / Gladstone Park did not disappoint: Two more homes were sold than in Q3 2009, for a total of 16 properties. That tied the Q3 2008 sales figure, but was short two homes vs. Q3 2007. On a graph, this looks like we’re coming out of a valley…

SEGP Q3 2007-2010 Units Sold

While unit sales were satisfactory, median home values declined by 3.9% vs. Q3 2009. It’s not really a worrisome issue because we had one bank-owned / REO sale and three short sales in Q3 2010, and the quicker banks work their way out of the distressed property inventory, the faster home values will stabilize and rise again. Here’s a Q3 2010 “feel-good” story from the North Gladstone Park neighborhood: A bank-owned property at 5755 N Melvina Ave. was purchased on June 30, 2010 for $225,000. The property underwent some remodeling (not exactly sure what was rehabbed), was placed on the market for sale on July 31, 2010, and closed again on September 9, 2010 for $320,000. Obviously, the improvements made in July must have been worth $95,000 to the buyer and the appraiser, as this was a conventionally financed transaction. Can you say “Flip that house”?

SEGP Q3 2007-2010 Sale Prices

And more good news for South Edgebrook / Gladstone Park, as the sale-to-list-price ratio further improved in Q3 2010 vs. Q3 2009 by 1.3%. It’s not a huge change, but you can see the trend on the chart: Home sellers are becoming less negotiable as a result of realistic pricing, as average list prices in Q3 2010 dropped by 4.6% vs. Q3 2009.

SEGP Q3 2007-2010 Sale-List Prices

With 51 homes currently for sale in South Edgebrook / North Gladstone Park, the MSI-Index stands at 9.6 months. Another very reasonable absorption figure, pointing in the direction of a balanced real estate market.

Moreover, at $460,000, the median sale price in Q2 2010 increased by 3.1% over Q2 2010. Even better, the average market time of homes in Edgebrook dropped in Q2 2010 by almost 18% to 156 days, vs. Q2 2009. Is it just me, or do the Q2 2010 figures for Edgebrook bear some resemblance to the Q2 2007 figures?

List-price-to-sale-price ratio improved as well in Q2 2010: A 2.7% increase vs. Q2 2009 to 92.7%. And this despite the fact that out of the 24 sold homes in Edgebrook, only two were short sales, and none were bank-owned (REO) sales. Edgebrook home values starting to find their way back to old glory?

With 68 homes currently for sale in Edgebrook, the MSI-Index (Months Supply of Inventory) stands at 8.5 months which means that if no other homes came on the market for sale, it would take 8.5 months to sell off the existing inventory of homes in Edgebrook. This is a very reasonable absorption figure that is trending towards a balanced real estate market.

In Q2 2010, the median sale price in Sauganash declined by 6% to $400,000 vs. Q2 2009. Average market times though, declined as well from 266 days in Q2 2009 to 187 days in Q2 2010. The five distressed properties certainly contributed to that.

The sale of the five distressed properties also helped bump up the sale-to-list-price ratio by a good percent vs. Q2 2009. Excuding these five sales, the ratio would have been 92.3%, almost exactly the same as in Q2 2009. Still, not a bad result, considering that we’re not out of the woods yet.

With 62 homes currently for sale in Sauganash, the MSI-Index (Months Supply of Inventory) stands at 8.1 months. Again, this is quite a reasonable absorption figure that is pointing towards the direction of a balanced real estate market.

The fact that almost half of all homes sold in South Edgebrook / Gladstone Park in Q2 2010 were distressed properties also made an impression on home values in this section of 60646: The median home price plummeted to $200,000 which is a decline of 40.3%!!!! vs. Q2 2009. It’s like I said before: Banks just want to get these non-performing assets off of their books. If you think you might get caught in this “crossfire” with the sale of your non-distressed property, perhaps you ought to consider delaying the sale of your real estate, if you can. And that’s because appraisers are no longer excluding “non-armslength” transactions from comps. When it rains, it pours, so incidentally, average market times in Q2 2010 increased as well to 153 days vs. 90 days in Q2 2009.

Again, a sale-to-list-price ratio of 96.7% comes as no surprise, considering that three of the five bank-owned (REO) properties sold in South Edgebrook / Gladstone Park in Q2 2010 sold above listing price, and three other distressed properties sold above 95% SP-LP. It looks good on the chart though.

With 60 homes currently for sale in South Edgebrook / North Gladstone Park, the MSI-Index stands at 12 months. Not a terribly high absorption figure, but still indicating a strong buyer’s market.

Edgebrook Q1 2007-2010 Units Sold

In Q1 2010, average and median sale prices in Edgebrook declined vs. Q1 2009 (-14.5% and -18.4% respectively) but stayed in the vicinity of Q1 2007 and 2008 figures. So, even though Edgebrook home values have not been immune to the general softness of the market, there is absolutely no need to even waste a breath talking about real estate values in Edgebrook “crashing”. On another positive note, Q1 2010 saw a decline in average market times vs. Q1 2009. On average, it took a little over 4 months to sell a home in Edgebrook vs. 8 months in Q1 2009.

Edgebrook Q1 2007-2010 Sale Prices

There was no significant change in sale-to-list-price ratio in Q1 2010 vs. Q1 figures of recent years past, even though the green line below seems to indicate a big drop from Q1 2009 to Q1 2010. This ratio represents the percentage home sellers are willing to sell their homes for below their asking prices. For the past three years, this ratio has been almost 95% in the first quarter. It’s also testimony to the fact that Edgebrook is not a typical distressed property market.

Edgebrook Q1 2007-2010 Sale-to-List-Price Ratio

With 55 homes currently for sale in Edgebrook, the MSI-Index (Months Supply of Inventory) stands at 18.3 months which means that if no other homes came on the market for sale, it would take 18.3 months to sell off the existing inventory of homes in Edgebrook.

Sauganash Q1 2007-2010 Units Sold

I don’t want to jinx myself by calling it a recovery, but let us collectively acknowledge the fact that median home values in Sauganash in Q1 2010 increased by 25% over Q1 2009. Average home values rose by 17.3%. This is bloody GOOD NEWS! So what’s with the 254 days average market time? Well, there was one home that finally closed after being on the market for 681 days, and two other homes that closed after 461 and 466 days on the market. With only nine sold homes, relatively long market times on a third of the sold inventory, naturally leave a scuff mark on the stat sheet. But hey, values are up, so I’m calling the glass half-full.

Sauganash Q1 2007-2010 Sale Prices

The sale-to-list-price ratio in Sauganash improved a tiny bit in Q1 2010 vs Q1 2009, but is still 3.7% below Q1 2008. It basically means that home sellers in Sauganash were willing to part with their homes for 9.3% below their asking prices, on average. In Q1 2008, they were only negotiable up to 5.6%, on average.

Sauganash Q1 2007-2010 Sale-to-List-Price Ratio

With 50 homes currently for sale in Sauganash, the absorption rate measures 16.7 months. For the record, there were two more sales in Q1 2010 in Sauganash: A townhouse that closed for $515,000 and a 2-flat that changed ownership for $370,000.

SEdgebrook-GladstonePk Q1 2007-2010 Units Sold

More good news: The median home value in Q1 2010 beat the one in Q1 2009 by 13.4%. The average home value though, lost by 3.7%. The average market time rose to 157 days from 105 days in Q1 2009 which was mainly due to a property in the Edgebrook Glen subdivision that had been for sale on the market for a cumulative 894 days before it closed. Excluding that property, the average market time would have been 100 days.

SEdgebrook-GladstonePk Q1 2007-2010 Sale Prices

And the good news for South Edgebrook and Gladstone Park continues: The sale-to-list-price ratio in Q1 2010 edged up to 95.7% from 94.9% in Q1 2009. Not a huge jump, but every little bit helps.

SEdgebrook-GladstonePk Q1 2007-2010 Sale-to-List-Price Ratio

With 47 homes currently for sale in South Edgebrook / Gladstone Park, the MSI-Index (Months Supply of Inventory) stands at 10.1 months which means that if no other homes came on the market for sale, it would take 10.1 months to sell off the existing inventory of homes in South Edgebrook / Gladstone Park. Aside from the above reported sales of single family homes, in South Edgebrook / Gladstone Park, there were three 2-flats that sold, ranging from $210,000 to $380,000 and one condo that closed for $130,000. There are currently 14 multi-unit buildings and 9 condos actively for sale in this neighborhood.

Edgebrook Q4 2006-2009 Units Sold

Edgebrook 2006-2009 Units Sold

Bad news: In Q4 2009, home values in Edgebrook eroded further. The median sale price of a home in Edgebrook fell to $373,500 which was almost 8% lower than in Q4 2008. Undoubtedly, out of 16 sales, the closing of four bank-owned foreclosure properties and two short sales had something to do with this development. Ordinarily, these non-arms length transactions should not factor in the equation, but look, when 27.5% of the total market value in Q4 2009 ($5.9MM) are distressed home sales, we can no longer pretend that the distressed portion of the local market operates in a vacuum. On an annual basis, the median sale price was 7.8% below 2008 and 3.6% below 2007.
Good news: Average market times in Edgebrook fell from 110 days in Q4 2008 to 80 days in Q4 2009. For the whole year, 2009 market times were roughly equal to 2008 figures: On average, it took a good five months to sell a home in Edgebrook, in 2009.

Edgebrook Q4 2006-2009 Sale Prices

Edgebrook 2006-2009 Sale Prices

Another sign of hope on the horizon: In Q4 2009, the sale-price-to-list-price ratio increased to 95.4% which means that on average, Edgebrook home sellers were willing to part with their properties for only about 4.5% below their asking prices. Given the fact that 6 of the 16 sellers were banks, this figure is not surprising, as banks are not interested in “non-performing assets” and had therefore offered these homes for down-to-the-bone asking prices already. Throughout the year, this ratio fell to 92.6% which is a little more than a percent vs. previous year.

Edgebrook Q4 2006-2009 Sale-List Prices

Edgebrook 2006-2009 Sale-List Prices

With 45 homes currently for sale in Edgebrook, the MSI-Index (Months Supply of Inventory) stands at 8.4 months which means that if no other homes came on the market for sale, it would take 8.4 months to sell off the existing inventory of homes for sale.

Sauganash Q4 2006-2009 Units Sold

Sauganash 2006-2009 Units Sold

Just like in Edgebrook, home values in Sauganash continued to erode in 2009. While the median home price in Sauganash in Q4 2009 managed to beat out the one in Q4 2008 by 5.2%, on an annual basis, the median home value in Sauganash lost 19.2% in 2009 vs. 2008. There were seven foreclosure sales and two short sales in Sauganash in 2009. However, removing these 9 transactions from the analysis only slightly raises the median home value to $412,500 which is still 16.8% below 2008 results. Average market times in Sauganash improved in Q4 2009 to 182 days vs. 191 in Q4 2008. For the entire year, it still took an average of 152 days to sell a home in Sauganash vs. 191 days in 2008.

Sauganash Q4 2006-2009 Sale Prices

Sauganash 2006-2009 Sale Prices

A very pleasant surprise was to see the average sale-to-list-price ratio climb to 93.4% in Q4 2009. This has been the highest SLP ratio in the fourth quarter of the past four years. Again, distressed inventories were already discounted, so no surprise there. But if I remove the nine distressed transactions from the analysis, I arrive at a ratio of 92.6% for the year which is still remarkable. It means that Sauganash home sellers are once again starting to become a bit less negotiable, in terms of price.

Sauganash Q4 2006-2009 Sale-List Prices

Sauganash 2006-2009 Sale-List Prices

If no other homes came on the market for sale in Sauganash, it would take 7 months to sell all the existing inventory of 51 homes that are for sale.

SEGP Q4 2006-2009 Units Sold

SEGP 2006-2009 Units Sold

Even though SEGP median home values declined by almost 12% vs. 2008, in Q4 2009 they handily beat the Q4 2008 results by nearly 13%. Moreover, average market times dramatically declined in SEGP. In Q4 2009, on average, it took 67 days less than in Q4 2008 to sell a home. And while it still took almost 5 months on average to sell a home in SEGP in 2009, this figure was 40 days less than in 2008.

SEGP Q4 2006-2009 Sale Prices

SEGP 2006-2009 Sale Prices

Not unlike Sauganash, South Edgebrook and North Gladstone Park posted remarkable sale-to-list-price ratios, both quarterly, as well as annually. While the SLP ratio in Q4 2009 edged out the one in Q4 2008 by 0.7%, in 2009, that figure increased by 0.3% over 2008. Could this perhaps be the sign of a real estate market that has finally bottomed out? I’m curious to read your thoughts on this subject.

SEGP Q4 2006-2009 Sale-List Prices

SEGP 2006-2009 Sale-List Prices

39 single family homes are currently for sale in South Edgebrook and Gladstone Park, hence the absorption rate is pushed to 9 months. Please note that in all sub-neighborhoods of zip code 60646, the current MSI-Indices are in single digit territory. This is a good thing!