I fully realize that I am almost two months late with Q3 2009 home sale figures for Edgebrook, Sauganash and Gladstone Park. My excuse is that I was busy moving my business from one RE/MAX office to another which, contrary to popular belief, is quite time-consuming. Add to that a whole bunch of very exciting business initiatives at my new office, and next thing you know, I’m falling behind on blogging. But …, better late than never (said the Cook County Treasurer when she mailed your second installment property tax notices for 2008, a couple of weeks ago ).

I’m going to preface this installment of 60646 quarterly real estate market conditions by saying that – not unlike the Chicago Bears’ 2009/10 season – our Edgebrook, Sauganash, and Gladstone Park home selling season in 2009 is unlikely to make a meaningful comeback. I don’t want you to peg me as the eternal pessimist, but realistically speaking, at this point, we’re in too deep of a valley to stage a dramatic come-from-behind assault on the glorious home sale figures of years past. Of course, the fourth quarter that we’re in at the moment, could still be the savior of this year’s home selling season, but with about 6 weeks left in the calendar for 2009, and a quick glance at the October and November MLS sales figures, chances are that at the end of this year, we’re going to look like Jay Cutler and his Bears offense in the red zone: Hideous!

Without further ado, I invite you to peruse the 3rd quarter 2009 home sale figures for Edgebrook, Sauganash, and Gladstone Park. And as always, I look forward to your comments and thoughts on these, as well. Also on behalf of RE/MAX Cityview, my family and I wish you a very happy Thanksgiving.

Edgebrook Real Estate Market Conditions Q3 2009 ↓↑

18 sold Edgebrook homes in Q3 2009 is the equivalent of a decline of about 45% year-over-year. Deja vu, in Q2 2009, there were 18 home sales in Edgebrook as well. Edgebrook Q3 2006-2009 Units Sold The bad news continues…the average home price in Edgebrook in Q3 2009 fell by 9.2% to $431,500 and the median sale price dropped by 6.7% to $419,750 vs. Q3 2008. To add insult to injury, the average market time in Q3 2009 rose by 27 days vs. Q3 2008 to 154 days. The graph below shows a frightening linear upward trend in average market times since Q3 2006. Edgebrook Q3 2006-2009 Sale Prices The next graph actually concerns me somewhat, because it shows signs of the onset of value erosion. Even though Edgebrook home sellers seem to have come to grips with lower average asking prices (red bars), in Q3 2009 they still ended up selling their homes 7.2% below asking price on average. Typically, about 10-15% below asking would be the sign for a distressed property neighborhood. But in Q3 2009, out of the 18 sales in Edgebrook, only two were short sales and only one was a bank-owned sale (REO). All other transactions were at arm’s length. Edgebrook Q3 2006-2009 Sale-List Prices The next image is the result of a 10-minute brainstorm, as I was trying to come up with alternative ways to present the stats to you in a way that wouldn’t bore you to death. The “Market Activity” table shows the various price ranges the 18 sold homes fell in, as well as the total market volume. Edgebrook Market Activity Q3 2009 With 51 homes actively for sale in Edgebrook, the MSI-Index (Months Supply of Inventory), a key absorption metric, currently stands at 8.5 months. In other words, if no other properties were to come on the market for sale, it would take 8.5 months to sell off the existing inventory of 51 homes in Edgebrook.

Sauganash Real Estate Market Conditions Q3 2009 ↓↑

Q3 2009 home sales in Sauganash tied the figure for Edgebrook at 18 units. This is actually a respectable result vs. Q3 2008 for Sauganash, even though short by 3 sales. But still better than Q3 2007 and Q3 2006. Sauganash Q3 2006-2009 Units Sold Let’s start with the good news: In Q3 2009, the average market time in Sauganash fell to 111 days, from 204 days in Q3 2008. What is not so pleasant is that in Q3 2009, the average sale price in Sauganash fell 28.2% to $359,850 vs. $501,119 in Q3 2008. The median sale price in Q3 2009 took a massive nosedive of 41.3% to $282,000 vs. Q3 2008. Sauganash Q3 2006-2009 Sale Prices Just like in Edgebrook, signs of home value erosion are starting to creep into Sauganash as well: In Q3 2009, home sellers sold their properties for an average of 8.2% below asking price. In Sauganash though, out of 18 homes sold, one was a short sale, and four homes were bank-owned sales (REOs). Together, these five distressed property sales represented 18.7% of total sales volume in Sauganash in Q3 2009. Sauganash Q3 2006-2009 Sale-List Prices The market activity table below shows that in Q3 2009, the majority of homes (14) in Sauganash sold below $450,000 which explains the massive decline of the median sale price vs. Q3 2008. Incidentally, all five distressed properties were sold below $300,000. Sauganash Market Activity Q3 2009 With 47 homes currently for sale in Sauganash, the MSI-Index stands at 7.8 months.

South Edgebrook/Gladstone Park Real Estate Market Conditions Q3 2009 ↓↑

In zip code 60646, the pleasant neighborhood surprises in Q3 2009 were South Edgebrook and North Gladstone Park. First off, with 14 single family home sales, SEGP was not far behind its Q3 2008 results. SEGP Q3 2006-2009 Units Sold While average and median sale prices were down 23.4% and 22.3% vs. Q3 2008 figures, average market times drastically fell from 269 days to 120 days. This is good news, as inventory seems to start moving again. SEGP Q3 2006-2009 Sale Prices More good news…While home sellers in SEGP were selling their properties for 9% below average asking price a year ago, in Q3 2009, they were not prepared to part with their real estate for more than 6.5% below asking price, on average. This warms my heart, somewhat. Of course, this should not cause us to lose sight of the fact that both average asking and selling prices declined vs. Q3 2008. SEGP Q3 2006-2009 Sale-List Prices No surprises in the market activity chart, as SEGP inventory is on average relatively lower priced than Edgebrook and Sauganash inventory. However, average sale prices in SEGP could rise soon, as listing activity in the MLS has resumed on the “Edgebrook Glen” subdivision inventory, within the past couple of weeks (For Sale in South Edgebrook / Gladstone Park). SEGP Market Activity Q3 2009 With 37 homes currently for sale in SEGP, the MSI-Index stands at 7.9 months.

It’s been a homecoming of sorts, at my old (business) stomping grounds when I was associated with a real estate company that displays the Rock of Gibraltar, about five years ago. 6430 N Central Ave. in Edgebrook’s central business district, has been home to RE/MAX Cityview for the past year, and is now my new office as well.

The three years I spent at RE/MAX First Class Realty in Skokie were rewarding, from a business point of view, as well as socially, as I met a number of new and familiar colleagues, and Skokie clients. But given the fact that my business centers around Edgebrook, Sauganash, Gladstone Park, and Forest Glen, there was a need to relocate back here. Obviously, in Edgebrook, we’re not suffering from a shortage of real estate offices, and since I bleed RE/MAX red-white-and-blue, the decision to join RE/MAX Cityview was fairly simple. My sincere thanks go to the owners of RE/MAX First Class Realty in Skokie, the Kontos family, for providing me with a first-class business environment during the past three years, and for whom I have the utmost respect. I will miss them and most of my colleagues there, but it was simply time for a change.

RE/MAX Cityview in Edgebrook is owned and operated by Robert and Ramina Padron, a super dynamic couple who are on the fast track to turning this office into a neighborhood real estate powerhouse. I’ve only been here about two weeks, and I already feel at home. Here are a couple of snapshots of my cubical, and of our conference room:

My new office

Conference Room

During my first week, not only did Rob help me hook up my computer to the office/printer network, he also FIXED my PC with a printer problem that I was having for about the past year. And that’s because Rob is not only the broker/owner of this office, but he also has a information technology background. Right up my alley. Rob and the office staff have really done a tremendous job in making my transition super easy, as switching offices even within the RE/MAX system poses some significant administrative challenges. As if that wasn’t already enough of a nice welcome, check out what I ran into the other day, walking in to the office:

Welcome sign

I’m really not much of a ham, actually, more a shy kinda guy, but I suppose that at least all the visitors to Happy Foods now know that I work at RE/MAX in Edgebrook. Thanks Rob and Ramina. You guys really know how to make your new associates feel welcome. And I’m not even talking about the delicious designer cookie basket I found on my desk on my second day in the office.

So, now that we’ve got the big news out of the way, it’s time for you to visit me at my new digs. Whether you’re selling or buying real estate in Edgebrook, Sauganash, Forest Glen, Gladstone Park, or anywhere else in Illinois for that matter, contact me. I am as close as your phone, or email program.

The latest S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices were released last week (pdf-file), and the findings for Chicago were as follows: a 1.1% home price increase from April 09 to May 09 and a 17.5% price decline when comparing May 09 to May 08. Needless to say that Case-Shiller’s findings seldom match up with what we find home values to be in zip code 60646, and that’s not only because Case-Shiller don’t track home values on a quarterly basis. Judging by the blogosphere’s commentary, the latest Case-Shiller figures seem to be the strongest in nearly three years, however, in large metropolitan areas such as in Chicago, where we might be interested in specific neighborhood stats, Case-Shiller figures aren’t really helpful.

Edgebrook Real Estate Market Conditions Q2 2009 ↓↑

If you recall, in Q1 2009 we ended up with a sale of only 5 homes in Edgebrook, and my hope then was that we’d stage a come-from-behind type of sell-a-thon the rest of the year to make up for this low figure. Well, it hasn’t quite happened, although with 18 homes sold in Q2 2009 we did a bit better than the same quarter last year, in Edgebrook. Luckily, the year is not over yet. Edgebrook Q2 2006-2009 Units Sold Here’s the good news: In Q2 2009 the average home value in Edgebrook was 6% higher than in Q2 2008, and the median home value … wait for it … was even 15% higher, quarter-over-quarter. More good news: The average market time sank from 199 to 189 days in Q2 2009 vs. Q2 2008. Now, you’re probably thinking “ridiculous”, but hey, at this stage of the game, I’ll embrace ANY good news on the market conditions front, no matter how small it may be. Edgebrook Q2 2006-2009 Sale Prices Here now, comes a little bad news: The average sale-to-list-price ratio took a bit of a hit in Q2 2009. It stood at 90% which means that 18 Edgebrook home sellers were willing to part with their homes for 10% below their average asking prices. Just in the last quarter (Q1 2009) I was impressed with how this figure in Edgebrook refused to go below 95% (well, 94.9% actually) but I guess in this economic climate and buyers’ market in general, one needs to do what one needs to do, in order to accomplish one’s real estate goals. Edgebrook Q2 2006-2009 Sale-to-List-Price Ratio As of August 5, 2009 there are 64 single family homes actively for sale in Edgebrook which translates into a 10.7 Month Supply of Inventory which is an absorption metric that’s pretty close to single digit territory, as I had hoped for at the end of the last quarter.

Sauganash Real Estate Market Conditions Q2 2009 ↓↑

In Q1 2009 Sauganash had a slight distressed property problem, where two thirds of all closed homes were either short sales or foreclosures. In Q2 2009, this was no longer the case. To be sure, with 12 closed homes in Q2 2009, we’re still far removed from the glory days of real estate sales in Sauganash. But of these 12 homes, only one property was a distressed sale. Insert a little shameless self-promotion at this point: I was actually responsible for the sale of the most expensive home in Sauganash in Q2 2009. Sauganash Q2 2006-2009 Units Sold Sauganash average and median prices in Q2 2009 were down 7.5% and 5.9% vs. the same quarter last year, and the average market time increased to 266 days, quarter-over-quarter. Ouch! Sauganash Q2 2006-2009 Sale Prices More bad news about Sauganash market conditions: The average Sale-to-List-Price Ratio continued nosediving to 92.2% in Q2 2009. Still better than in Edgebrook though, and testimony to the fact that the distressed property problem in Sauganash – while not yet completely resolved – is slowly but surely being overcome. Sauganash Q2 2006-2009 Sale-to-List-Price Ratio As of August 5, 2009 there are 60 single family homes actively for sale in Sauganash which translates into a 15 Month Supply of Inventory.

South Edgebrook/Gladstone Park Real Estate Market Conditions Q2 2009 ↓↑

Market conditions in Chicago’s South Edgebrook and North Gladstone Park were nothing to write home about either, in Q2 2009. Four homes sold which is exactly one more than in Q1 2009, and on par with Q2 2008. Less than half the amount that were sold in Q2 2006. SEdgebrook-GladstonePk Q2 2006-2009 Units Sold Average and median home values were down 6.2% and 5.2% respectively quarter-over-quarter, but again, with four units sold, I don’t know if there is any statistical significance to these figures. The good news: Vs. Q2 2008 (210 days), the average market time in Q2 2009 dropped down to 90 days which is actually a “normal” figure. The explanation for that might be in the last graph. SEdgebrook-GladstonePk Q2 2006-2009 Sale Prices Average Sale-to-List-Price Ratio in SEGP followed suit with Edgebrook and Sauganash in Q2 2009 and stood at 90.2%. This means that this year in SEGP, four buyers got relatively better deals than four buyers around the same time, last year. It could also explain why market times decreased to 90 days, on average. SEdgebrook-GladstonePk Q2 2006-2009 Sale-to-List-Price Ratio As of August 5, 2009 there are 21 single family homes actively for sale in South Edgebrook / North Gladstone Park which translates into a 15.8 Month Supply of Inventory. Also, in SEGP, currently there are 19 multi-unit buildings (2-4 flats) for sale, between $300,000 and $590,000.

Of course we’ve all heard about or maybe even encountered the first-time visitor to Edgebrook who is under the false impression that we’re suburbanites. Sauganash residents may just be lucky enough to get a pass for being Chicagoans, but once the Edens Expressway is crossed to the west … yep, it’s gotta be the suburbs.

Lucky us, I say. We don’t mind being mistaken for suburbanites, because we get the best of both worlds: We’re Chicagoans, and we live in the suburbs. We have everything that we need in or pretty darn close to our neighborhood: Edgebrook. Except for overwhelmingly decent weather, but that’s a different story altogether.

So, in case you missed it, on Friday, the Chicago Tribune published an article about our tiny enclave of Edgebrook / Wildwood, where they finally set the record straight about us being part of Chicago. Enjoy.

The first quarter of 2009 is in the books. The market stats for 60646 weren’t pretty, as far as residential real estate sales are concerned, but then again, home sales have been down everywhere else. The latest Case-Shiller home price index for Chicago (February 2009) fell by 17.6% year-over-year, and – with the exception of Edgebrook – Sauganash and Gladstone Park home values pretty much fell in line with the February 2009 Case-Shiller figure for Chicago. Gladstone Park average home values fell by 18% quarter-over-quarter, and Sauganash was down *gasp* 43.9%!! My humble attempt at an explanation for this massive Q1 2009 home value fail in Sauganash can be found below. Edgebrook posted “only” a loss of 4.3% on average home values, quarter-over-quarter. I know what you’re thinking now. Yes, it sounds ugly, but we’re gonna have to work our way through this housing mess, and as long as the existing inventory doesn’t get absorbed by bona-fide demand, home prices will continue to decline, everywhere. My professional advice to sellers presently is, if you don’t have a compelling reason to sell your home at this point, don’t put it up for sale. If you must sell your home, you need to face the realities of the marketplace. We won’t sugarcoat anything. We’ll provide you with the data, along with our pricing recommendation. Then, you make the call. On the other hand, if you’re contemplating buying in the current market, I recommend that you read Mary Umberger’s latest Trib column “Buying a house: 5 reasons to do it now, and 5 reasons to wait”.

Edgebrook Real Estate Market Conditions Q1 2009 ↓↑

In Edgebrook, five homes sold/closed in Q1 2009, for a decline of 62% quarter-over-quarter. It wasn’t a good start into the year, so we’ll have to hope that this shortfall in number of homes sold will be made up during the rest of the year. Edgebrook Q1 2006-2009 Units Sold As mentioned above, average home values in Edgebrook declined moderately Q-o-Q by 4.3% to $544,300. The median home value jumped by 23% to $615,000. However, please keep in mind that with a total of only 5 sales in the quarter, this figure may not hold much significance. Average market times in Edgebrook were nothing to write home about either, in Q1 2009: 244 days vs. 169 days in Q1 2008. Edgebrook Q1 2006-2009 Sale Prices And here’s the amazing thing about Edgebrook real estate values: For (at least) the third year in a row, sellers have not been willing to part with their homes for more than about 5% below asking (listing) price, despite rising market times. In Edgebrook, there have been very few pre-foreclosure listings, and bank-owned (REO) properties which in turn has lead to relatively solid home values. Edgebrook Q1 2006-2009 Sale-to-List-Price Ratio As of May 15, 2009 there are 53 single family homes actively for sale in Edgebrook which translates into a 31.8 month supply of inventory. This is a relatively high MSI (Months Supply of Inventory) figure, and I would anticipate that many of the homes currently for sale in Edgebrook, for one reason or another, won’t succeed in finding buyers this year, hence, bringing the MSI figure hopefully back down to single-digit territory. I hope they will sell though.

Sauganash Real Estate Market Conditions Q1 2009 ↓↑

A review of Q1 2009 real estate market conditions in Chicago’s Sauganash neighborhood cannot begin without acknowledging that 6 out of the 9 homes sold/closed in this quarter were short sales and REO sales!!! At present, this distressed property problem in Sauganash is nowhere near being resolved. As of this writing, according to Realty Trac’s records, there are 27 pre-foreclosure homes, 7 bound for auction, and 6 REO’s (bank-owned homes) between Peterson and Devon Avenues, as well as 9 pre-foreclosure homes, and 2 REO’s south of Peterson Ave. in Sauganash. This inventory will take some time to work its way through the system, the results of which we probably won’t see until some time in the third and/or fourth quarters of 2009. Sauganash Q1 2006-2009 Units Sold Consequently, the average sale price in Sauganash fell to $364,133 which represents a 43.9% decline vs. Q1 2008. At $338,700 the median sale price in Sauganash took even a bigger hit of -46.5% vs. Q1 2008. At 85 days, average market times held steady in Q1 2009 vs. Q1 2008. Rock-bottom pricing on most of the aforementioned distressed property sales likely had a positive (depressing) effect on market times. Sauganash Q1 2006-2009 Sale Prices The chart below shows the sale-to-list-price ratio in Sauganash which took a big nosedive in Q1 2009: Sellers (lenders in 2 out of 3 cases) approved a 10% discount below asking price. It’s a typical sign of the times where banks are attempting to get potential “non-performing assets” off their books. In a “normal” market like Sauganash saw even in Q1 2008, more than a 5% concession on the part of home sellers would have been hardly conceivable. Sauganash Q1 2006-2009 Sale-to-List-Price Ratio As of May 15, 2009 there are 56 single family homes actively for sale in Sauganash which translates into a 18.7 month supply of inventory.

South Edgebrook/Gladstone Park Real Estate Market Conditions Q1 2009 ↓↑

This marks the inaugural (separate) review of South Edgebrook/Gladstone Park real estate market conditions. If you recall, at the end of 2008, we decided to separate sales activity in the “SEGP triangle” (South Edgebrook Gladstone Park triangle, hey I think I just coined a new term), because we wanted to avoid mixing these figures with those of Edgebrook, as they’re quite different markets, in terms of housing stock as well as price levels. Alas, I’m afraid that going forward, we may not have enough sales activity in this market to justify a separate review. In Q1 2009, only 3 single family homes sold/closed in SEGP. While this represented an improvement Q-o-Q, it’s still dismal, let alone insignificant, statistically speaking. Of all the neighborhoods in 60646, SEGP is the one with the most multi-unit building (2-4 flats) inventory for sale. In fact, there are twelve multi-unit buildings for sale in SEGP, as of this writing. However, in Q1 2009, not one multi-unit in SEGP sold/closed. In all of 2008, there were only 3 sales of multi-unit buildings in SEGP. And don’t even get me started on condos or townhomes, because that’s not what sells in SEGP. SEdgebrook-GladstonePk Q1 2006-2009 Units Sold Average sale price dropped in Q1 2009 by 18% to $310,000 vs. Q1 2008, and median sale price fell by 33.9% to $250,000. Again, statistically not really significant with only 3 sales in Q1 2009 and 1 sale in Q1 2008. Average market time in Q1 2009 was 105 days. SEdgebrook-GladstonePk Q1 2006-2009 Sale Prices Sale-to-list-price ratio in Q1 2009 stood at 94.9% which is remarkable, because one of the three closed homes was a bank-owned (REO) property which sold for full asking price. Again, not much sales activity in SEGP, but home values have continued to remain stable. SEdgebrook-GladstonePk Q1 2006-2009 Sale-to-List-Price Ratio As of May 15, 2009 there are 25 single family homes actively for sale in South Edgebrook / Gladstone Park which translates into a 25 month supply of inventory.

Home sales in Edgebrook and maybe to a lesser extent in Sauganash started out strongly in the first quarter of 2008. From there, home values in 60646 began dipping, and were soon followed by declining sales. This trend was continued in the fourth quarter of 2008, and I won’t even make an attempt to put a spin on the figures – not that I ever do – because the numbers are what the numbers are. I’m just the messenger. In this edition of my quarterly market conditions report for Edgebrook and Sauganash, I have included the comparative year-end figures as well, going back to 2005.

A quick remark about the methodology of this column, going forward. 2008 was the last year, in which I included sales figures for the neighborhoods of South Edgebrook, Indian Woods, and North Gladstone Park in the Edgebrook figures. Starting with the Q1 2009 report which will be published some time in the beginning of April this year, I’ll offer a separate review for these neighborhoods. The Edgebrook report will then encompass only sales activity in the neighborhoods of Old Edgebrook, Wildwood, North Edgebrook, Edgebrook Towers, and Middle Edgebrook. A number of folks have asked me to make this change, because the general consensus seems to be that the housing stock south of Old Edgebrook is just not comparable to the one in Edgebrook, in terms of price range, as well as types of properties (many more apartment buildings in Gladstone Park, relatively few in Edgebrook). I agree with this argument. In fact, you may have noticed that the navigation menu at the top of 60646 Blog now lists homes for sale in the South Edgebrook and Gladstone Park neighborhoods separately. Similarly, in our weekly open house page, homes that are held open in South Edgebrook and Gladstone Park, are listed under a separate header. So, let’s dive into the quarterly and annual sales figures.

Edgebrook ↓↑

The two graphs below are pretty self explanatory: 14 homes sold in Q4 of 2008 and 78 for the entire year of 2008, for a decline of 44% quarter-over-quarter, and -23% year-over-year. So far, so good. The average home value was the next victim. In Q4 2008 it suffered a loss of about 4.5% vs. Q4 2007. Actually reasonable, considering that the Case-Schiller home value index for Chicago is down by about 11%. Vs. 2007, average home values in Edgebrook declined by a little over 5% in 2008. Average market times (days on market) fell by 27 days (yay!) in Q4 2008 vs. Q4 2007, but on average, in Edgebrook a house was on the market for 151 days in 2008 (vs. 131 days in 2007), before it closed. Successful Edgebrook home sellers on average were asking a tad below $502,000 for their homes in 2008 which basically matched the asking price level in 2005. The difference was that in 2005 they weren’t willing to sell for more than 3.3% on average below their asking price. In 2008, however, they were negotiable to the tune of 6.2% on average. These are the realities of the current market. As of January 19, 2008 there have been 75 single family homes actively for sale in Edgebrook which translates into a 16-month supply of inventory.

Sauganash ↓↑

Yes, fourth quarter 2008 sales figures in Sauganash declined year-over-year, as well as annually, but in the context of the last four years the picture was far from a catastrophe. 11 homes closed in Q4 2008, and 56 during the entire year 2008. While average home values held pretty much steady in Q4 2008 vs. Q4 2007 at $467,318, for the year they declined by 4.4% vs. 2007 to $514,357. This still beats the Case-Schiller Index for Chicago which stood at about -11% year-over-year in October 2008. The troubling issue in Sauganash is still the fairly high average market time of homes: 191 days for Q4 2008, as well as for the entire year. In contrast, in 2005, a home in Sauganash sold in 57 days, on average. The “negotiability” of successful Sauganash home sellers mirrored that of the ones in Edgebrook, in 2008. Home sellers were willing to part with their residences for an average of 6.3% below asking price. Again, a big decline from 2005 when the average sale price to list price ratio stood at 97.3% in Sauganash. Active inventory for sale in Sauganash amounts to 51 homes as of January 19, 2008 which translates into a supply of 13.9 months. It is also worth mentioning that there were 8 closed townhomes in Sauganash in 2008; 6 of them in Sauganash Village. The average asking price for all townhouses was $373,775 the average sale price was $349,718, and the median sale price was $355,375.